Interview - 'Army Reforms Ensured Victory'

Prof. Emmanuel Yenshu Vubo, Political Science lecturer with the University of Buea, Cameroon, explains what led to last week's defeat of M 23 rebels by the DRC military and UN troops and also makes a forecast of the chances of peace and stability in the region.

What explains the recent defeat of the M 23 rebels by the Democratic Republic of Congo Armed Forces?

The M 23 was a rather small group that was residual in character as opposed to other groups of a regional character in the East of the DRC. The others dwindled or phased out, leaving the M 23 with little isolated following. That was, may be, the first reason from a strategic stand point. Secondly, the return to normal democratic political life in DRC weakened the movement in terms of legitimacy. As such, its lingering resort to military force might not have been well understood by the people, undermining its capacity to recruit new soldiers.

This was compounded by the atrocities repeatedly committed by rebel groups on civilians in the past. This explains why their routing by government forces was greeted with joy by civilians. Thirdly, the central government is enjoying some stability after years of turbulent wrangling and internal warfare. Such a context was favourable for the organisation of the army which was at the basis of the victory. One should normally expect a better organised and equipped army with a certain level of legitimacy after most of the country has enjoyed some level of peace for some time.

A fourth factor was the weakening of DRC's eastern neighbour, Rwanda, which is facing its share of internal problems and which wishes also to secure its eastern borders from Hutu rebels. Rwanda is known to have sponsored many of the rebel movements in the East of Congo in the past. The central government in Kinshasa is also determined (with the assistance of UN Peace keeping forces) to track down Hutu rebels of the FDLR in the region who used to serve as alibi for the intervention of Rwanda. This will give Kinshasa the leeway to operate without distractions from external influences. Lastly, the role of the UN peace forces cannot be underestimated. They were also harassed alongside the army and so had reason to assist government forces in the offensive.

How can the victory be sustained?

As concerns the M 23, this victory is conclusive. I do not see the movement bouncing back. The victories can be enduring if the central government follows up with the effective occupation of recaptured territory by ensuring a return to normal civilian life. This should be accompanied by security measures that will assure the local people. Moreover, the victories can only be sustainable if there is parallel political reconciliation between former warring parties. This should be done by addressing the disputes that led to the rebellion in the first place.

It was not enough to win the war; it is equally important to arrive at consensus as a condition for enduring peace. War should not substitute politics even if it is said that war is politics by other means. This is the basis of the twin conditions of coercion and consensus. To this, must be added the need for justice. Persons responsible for war atrocities or crimes should be identified and brought to justice, be it in Congo itself or at the ICC. This is an essential condition for an end to war in the region without giving the impression of impunity.

What chances are there now for peace and stability to return to the eastern DRC and the Great Lakes region?

This is the beginning of peace and stability, depending on a number of conditions. The first of these is the capacity of the DRC in ensuring security within its eastern borders. The second condition is the search for solution to political problems that have given rise to the conflicts that cut across State boundaries. The most crucial of these problems is the one arising from identities, especially the former Hutu-Tutsi conflict proper to Rwanda and Burundi, which spilled over into DRC as a fall back zone for Hutu and Tutsis after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. This fuelled the recurrent problems in DRC.

This problem cannot be solved by one country in the way President Paul Kagame of Rwanda did by imposing consensus internally and combatting Hutu rebels in DRC as well as destabilising the government of Kinshasa through proxy groups. Both Kigali and Kinshasa should look for common grounds to solve this problem. Burundi, Uganda, the African Union and other international actors should be called into play. Why not envisage regional cooperation structures around the Great Lakes nations that will take care of security issues and political questions? The chances of peace and stability are there, but they need to be exploited.