The first domino fell Monday with regards to the Lions' pursuit of All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh.
Realizing $26.9 million for one year of Suh wasn't worth the cash commitment and damage to the salary cap, the team declined to use the franchise tag, its last opportunity to ensure Suh will be in Detroit in 2015.
Now, Suh is inching closer to becoming an unrestricted free agent, and if the Lions cannot re-sign him by 4 p.m. next Tuesday, he can choose where he'll play next season. And plenty of teams with significantly more salary cap space than the Lions — likely including the Raiders, Jaguars and possibly Colts — will be courting Suh.
Just because other teams cannot sign Suh until next Tuesday doesn't mean there won't be rumblings and rampant speculation between now and then. At 4 p.m. Saturday, teams can begin negotiating with pending free agents. If the Lions don't sign Suh by then, reports of offers from anonymous sources will be commonplace during that three-day window.
Whether with the Lions or another team, the decision not to use the franchise tag all but ensures Suh will become the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history, surely passing the $16.7 million average annual value and $51.8 million guaranteed in Texans defensive end J.J. Watt's six-year, $100 million extension last September.
The Lions, meanwhile, remain confident they can work out a deal with Suh, whether it's before or after he tests the open market. But if Suh stalls in free agency and takes a couple days to decide on an offer, the Lions' free agency plans could be a victim.
"From our standpoint, it's important to get something done before free agency if we can," general manager Martin Mayhew said at the combine. "We'll keep working toward getting something done with the understanding that once we do that and make that financial commitment, things kind of fall into place from there."
Unfortunately, it's difficult to know exactly where things stand with negotiations. After the Lions announced their decision with the franchise tag Monday morning, Suh's agent Jimmy Sexton and Lions president Tom Lewand both did not return multiple requests for comment. Mayhew also did not respond to one such request.
Since negotiations began last March when Suh fired his agent Roosevelt Barnes to sign with Sexton, the Lions and Suh's camp have been tight-lipped about negotiations. Numbers haven't leaked, and there have been no signs that the sides are nearing an agreement. Mayhew has said multiple times the team doesn't like to negotiate through the media.
"My experience with these things is there's no such thing as close," he said at the combine. "Either it's done or it's not done."
The Lions have about $18 million in salary cap space to pursue free agents in 2015. Much of those funds will be earmarked for Suh, and if the Lions do re-sign him, they can structure the deal in a way that leaves them cap space to sign more free agents.
On Monday, the team continued its offseason plans, re-signing backup quarterback Dan Orlovsky to a one-year deal. A recently signed one-year deal with defensive end Darryl Tapp also became public, and the Lions hosted free-agent defensive tackle Kendall Langford and a draft prospect on visits.
Absent a Suh deal, though, the Lions will be unable to begin working to sign their other prioritized free agents, like kicker Matt Prater, cornerback Rashean Mathis and guard Rob Sims.
"Priority No. 1 is getting a deal done with him, so that's what we're focused on," Mayhew said at the combine. "We'll cross the bridges of other players whenever we get to those."
And once the Lions know what's happening with Suh, they can make a decision on fellow starting defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who will also become an unrestricted free agent next Tuesday. If the structure of a Suh deal is right, the Lions could afford to re-sign Fairley, but it would have to be at the right price as the team doesn't fully trust Fairley to stay healthy and play consistently.
If Suh spurns the Lions, though, signing Fairley would become more of a priority because he has more potential than most of the other free-agent defensive tackles.
For better or worse, the Lions are one step closer to knowing whether Suh will be a part of the franchise long term. The franchise tag would've only secured Suh for one year, but the Lions will do everything possible between now and next Tuesday to keep him in Detroit for years to come.