Failed Boko Haram ceasefire deal: NGA pays dearly for outsmarting CMR

The Nigerian government who hastily announced last Friday that they had reached a ceasefire deal with the Islamic Boko Haram militant group has paid a huge price in an attempt to outsmart Cameroon in the negotiations.

Analysts say by engaging in such a crucial peace deal without Cameroon which is a hardest hit by the Islamic militant group, the Nigerian government was in a way pushing the terrorists to concentrate their dubios activities on Cameroon soil.

Many have even questioned how President Goodluck Jonathan, knowing fully well that President Paul Biya stands in a class of his own when it comes to negotiating with the terrorist group, could have expected a genuine ceasefire deal without the Cameroonian leader playing a key role in the negotiations.

“In my honest appreciation of the so-called ceasefire deal between the government of Nigeria and Boko Haram, I think President Goodluck Jonathan wanted to give the impression to the militant group that Nigeria is more friendly to them than Cameroon… To call a spade by its true name, I think by so doing, the Nigerian government wanted to push Boko Haram to Cameroon…”, a senior Cameroonian diplomat who pleaded for anonymity sustained.

In what even Abuja has announced it is a failed ceasefire deal with the Islamic sect, suspected militant Islamists shot and slaughtered people in three villages in north-east Nigeria, shortly after government had claimed it had agreed a truce with the terrorists. The Boko Haram fighters raided two villages on Saturday and raised their flag in a third.

In frustration, the Nigerian government which had hoped that the group would follow the truce to free the over 200 girls it captured in April this week, says it would continue negotiating with Boko Haram.

Meanwhile, Boko Haram has not commented on the announcement made on Friday that a truce had been agreed and that they would release the schoolgirls abducted from the remote north-eastern town of Chibok.

Reports that Boko Haram is reportedly represented in the talks, taking place in neighbouring Chad, by Danladi Ahmadu has been rubbished by Ahmad Salkida, a Nigerian journalist said to have good contacts with Boko Haram. He is quoted as describing Danladi Ahmadu as a "bogus" and an "imposter."

For his part, Nigerian government negotiator, Hassan Tukur says Boko Haram had "honoured its first promise" by releasing 27 Cameroonian and Chinese nationals on 11 October, after capturing them in separate raids in May and July. "Since it delivered on its promise to Cameroon, we expect Boko Haram to deliver on the release of the Chibok girls and the cessation of hostilities in north-eastern Nigeria," he said.

Chad's President Idris Deby is mediating between the two sides, Nigeria's government says. However, Saturday's attacks have caused many Nigerians to doubt whether the government has really negotiated a truce with Boko Haram, especially as no statement has been issued by its leader, Abubakar Shekau.

Reports say Boko Haram fighters burnt homes and killed many people during raids on the villages of Grata and Pina in Adamawa state. As they marched from Grata to Pina, they also slit the throats of villagers whom they came across.

In a separate attack, the militants raided Abadam village in neighbouring Borno state and raised their flag over the village, a resident who fled the area told the BBC.

His friend was among those who had been killed by the militants, the resident said. Many people had fled across the border to Niger, he added. Nigerian government’s negotiator, Tukur says Abuja is trying to "verify where the attacks are coming from". "As you know, it is difficult to have a ceasefire in an organisation that has many members and cells/units," he is quoted as saying.

Hassan Tukur, the principal secretary to the President Goodluck Jonathan has hinted at wider negotiations with Boko Haram that involve Chad, Cameroun and Nigeria to strengthen the ceasefire and lead to the cessation of hostilities between Nigeria and the sect.

The factionalisation of Boko Haram, resulting in fierce infighting and a leadership tussle among the hardliners and moderates in the sect, has however been blamed for the violation of the ceasefire brokered by the Chadian president between the Nigerian government and Boko Haram.

Intelligence sources say the ceasefire was already under threat because of the many competing units within the terrorist organisation, with some of them said to be fiercely opposed to negotiating with the federal government or cessation of hostilities.

The hardliners, the sources disclosed, want to carry on fighting the federal government and more importantly, avenge the recent heavy losses at the hands of Nigerian and Cameroonian forces.

A top security source said: “Some of the terrorist cells which do not want the hostilities to end might want to truncate the ceasefire. This explains the reason for some of these attacks you are seeing now.

Another thing is that given the fact that terrorists operate in cells, not all Boko Haram members may be aware of the ceasefire agreement. Also, some of the cells might use the opportunity to make their presence felt. That is why it is difficult reaching an agreement with terrorists all over the world.”

A top Nigerian military source who spoke on the matter is quoted as saying that while the military would have to observe the ceasefire to allow for the negotiations, it would not stand by and allow any group or persons to violate the territorial integrity of the country.

The main question mark was the identity of the purported Boko Haram envoy, Danladi Ahmadu, who claimed to be the group’s chief of security and to have been involved in talks to broker the deal.

He “does not speak” for the Boko Haram leader, Abubakar Shekau.Further doubts came after Ahmadu failed to announce explicitly that Boko Haram had agreed to a ceasefire or give concrete details about the girls’ release in an interview broadcast on Voice of America (VOA) radio's Hausa language service.

“It is not clear who the said Boko Haram negotiator is and whether he has the mandate of the entire group or just a faction of the entire group," said Nnamdi Obasi, a Nigerian researcher for the International Crisis Group.

Ordinarily, a clear statement about such a development would be expected from Shekau, who has previously refused to end the violence until strict Islamic law is imposed across northern Nigeria. He has also said the schoolgirls would only be released if Nigeria agreed to a prisoner swap of jailed militants.