The calls for Paul Biya to stand again

Elizabeth Tamajong who is a former Secretary General of the SDF party is reported to have said that if Biya “knows from the depth of his heart that he doesn’t have the physical strength to continue to rule Cameroon, then he should not give in” to increasing calls for him to run again for the post of President of the Republic.

The problem with Tamajong`s statement is that it does not ask Biya pointedly not to stand again as a candidate for the post. Her statement leaves it up to Biya to be his own judge and determine how physically fit he is to rule the country for another term. That means that if after reflecting he decides that he is fit to run for the post, then he can stand as a candidate. So, would that solve Tamajong`s problem?

This debate has been rekindled in recent months – perhaps even weeks – by segments of the CPDM party of which Biya is the national chairman and groups of sympathetic “elite” from different parts of the country, publicly calling on Paul Biya – who has so far not responded – to stand as a candidate to his own succession as President of the Republic. Some advocates have even urged him to call early elections instead of waiting for the year 2018 when his current seven-year term is expected to expire.

Even so, not every Cameroonian wants Biya to stand as a candidate. In fact, some have been blunt enough to ask him to pack his bags and go (the “Paul Biya dégage!” campaign led by Bertin Kisob, a young committed Cameroonian who leads one of the legalized opposition parties) while others such as Nfor Susungi have written to Paul Biya informing him that they want his job. A Cameroonian journalist by the name of Mbah John Akuro has initiated a campaign aimed at collecting anti Biya signatures in the hope of convincing him that he is not wanted.

The problem is that what if the pro-Biyas also start collecting signatures and in the end they garner more signatures than those in Mbah John Akuro`s camp? Such a scenario is very possible because Paul Biya and his cronies have the financial means to criss cross the country and collect as many signatures as they want. We must not forget that one of the criticisms so far leveled at Paul Biya`s style of management is that he uses state funds and manpower to run his political campaigns. Other opponents of Paul Biya have resorted to insulting and vilifying him out rightly. But how will that help them? If such an approach did not work in the scorched earth policy that the opposition adopted in the ghost town years of the early 1990s, is it today that it will work?

However, away from the wishes and suppositions, let us look at the hard facts. My conviction is that Biya is very likely to stand again as President will win and serve another term in or before 2018. You do not have to agree with me. But that is my view.

Firstly, the insinuations that Biya`s physical fitness may not allow him to hold the post are rather thin on the ground. This is because when we look at him, we still see a man who despite his advanced age of 83 years, is still able to walk without a stick, he can still hold a conversation without memory lapses, contrary to his predecessor Ahmadou Ahidjo who did not live up to Biya`s present age, yet who long before his death had already started suffering memory lapses. Biya can still stand for long hours like when receiving New Year wishes at Unity Palace, and perhaps over and above all is the fact that he is still able to ride his bicycle for sport.

Let us now focus on the issue of age. If Biya even becomes President again in 2018, he will be aged 85. Yes, we may say that at such an age, he will be a very old president. But then, Tunisia`s current President Mohamed Beji Caid Essebsi who was born in 1926 (Biya was born in 1933) , became president of his country in 2014, at the age of 88 (while Biya became President at the age of 49). This year, the Tunisian President will be 90 (while Biya is 83) and in 1918 when Biya is expected to seek another term, the Tunisian president will be 92 years old (while Biya is 85). Yet, at that age, Mohamed Beji Caid Essebsi will be still president of his own country.

Another point is that if challenged further, Biya may very well point to Cameroon`s current constitution which does not have a limit to how many terms an incumbent president can rule the country. That means that if Biya can, to quote Britain`s former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, he can “go on and on”.

It is true that familiarity breeds contempt and that after being in power for nearly 34 years, Biya ought to stand down and let someone else do the job. Even so, it must be admitted that Cameroonians committed a big mistake when they allowed Biya`s ruling CPDM party to throw its weight around and remove the limitation that existed on the number of terms a Cameroonian president could serve. Now, Cameroonians have to live with the consequences of their inaction.

So, sadly enough, the constitution as it stands, gives Biya the moral high ground to run again for president, if he wants to. But it is entirely up to him. If anyone should force him to relinquish power, then that person has acted unconstitutionally and it would be difficult for such a person to justify his action in the eyes of the public and the world.

So if Biya insists on seeking another term, what option do his opponents and detractors have? Unfortunately, it is only the ballot box. I say “unfortunately’ because it will certainly be argued that he will “rig” and therefore render the ballot box meaningless in order to remain in power. Well, perhaps in that case, the hundreds of opposition parties that exist in the country should for once consider swallowing their pride and presenting a united front against him? Otherwise, come 2018, Paul Biya will very well still be President of Cameroon. Surely, a bitter pill to swallow for some, if not many?