Prof. Emmanuel Yenshu Vubo, political science lecturer, University of Buea, Cameroon, speaks on Madagascar's latest attempt to return to constitutional rule.
Can Madagascar overcome recent obstacles by organising credible presidential elections on October 25, 2013?
It is possible to overcome these obstacles, the most important being the intransigence of political actors and the absence of consensus on the rules of the game and the conduct of the elections proper. The most significant development that has ushered in a new state of affairs is the exclusion of the principal protagonists and their relatives at the centre of the conflict that has rocked the political life of the country over the past four years. Others are the acceptance of the Constitutional Council's decision by these leaders and the absence of some veterans of the political scene from the polls.
These developments have slowed down the tensions generated by the personality-related conflicts. The conflict between Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina was personalised. Their exclusion as well as that of Ravalomamana's wife, Lalao Rakotonirainy Ravalomamana, and Didier Ratsiraka, can have a salutary and unexpected positive effect on the outcome of the elections. With the advent of a new class of actors with no vested interests in old conflicts, one can expect a calm atmosphere.
The fear of exploiting incumbency to one's advantage through rigging and electoral hold-ups is likewise excluded (as could have been expected of Rajoelina who did not respect the deadline in filing his application). That these persons have accepted the verdict of the Electoral Commission is a good sign. An independent electoral commission is also likely to guarantee free and fair elections whose results could be accepted by all parties. The consensual electoral code may also ensure credible elections.
What are some of the challenges the vote is likely to encounter?
The most important challenge is the absence of a democratic culture and tradition. In its post-independence history, the country has seen two forceful takeovers and extensive periods of autocratic rule (civilian or military). The most recent attempt at democratic rule was interrupted by a revolt led by Andry Rajoelina who installed himself undemocratically in power; however justified his reasons were. Now, it looks as if the country is inventing or has to invent its democratic culture. This implies the introduction of new values, the development of new structures and institutions, and the adoption of new habits.
There is therefore need for political education for all actors (political leaders, organisers of elections, administration, citizens). Political leaders need to play a critical role by proffering certain values and exemplary behaviour in order to be seen as role models. Such a culture has to exclude any resort to the use of force in the transfer of power. The other challenges are organisational and linked to geography (topography and the impending rainy season).
A second round vote and parliamentary polls are scheduled for December 20, 2013. What are the country's chances of a quick return to political stability after this latest electoral attempt?
The possibilities for return to stability are there if one were to judge by the foregoing analysis. Elections are not an end in themselves, and should not be focused on power. If elections lead to a credible government and an opposition which can play its role of oversight on government and institutions (the different arms of government, military, civil society, etc.), then, there will be stability. This depends on the people of Madagascar and nobody else - not even the international community.
